Monday, November 21, 2011

Former skeptic concedes: "Global warming is real"

It's both reassuring and scary when former skeptics of climate change announce that they are now convinced that it is, in fact, for real. I would have preferred that the scientific evidence indicates otherwise. However, it's clear that we have to pull our collective heads out of the sand on this issue.

Acknowledging the reality of climate change is an important first step but if it only leads to a debate over whether it is human-induced or not we are still in danger of remaining in a holding pattern when it comes to taking much-needed action to avoid a major calamity. (GW)

The Case Against Global-Warming Skepticism


There were good reasons for doubt, until now.

By Richard A. Muller
Wall Street Journal
October 21, 2011

Are you a global warming skeptic? There are plenty of good reasons why you might be.

As many as 757 stations in the United States recorded net surface-temperature cooling over the past century. Many are concentrated in the southeast, where some people attribute tornadoes and hurricanes to warming.

The temperature-station quality is largely awful. The most important stations in the U.S. are included in the Department of Energy's Historical Climatology Network. A careful survey of these stations by a team led by meteorologist Anthony Watts showed that 70% of these stations have such poor siting that, by the U.S. government's own measure, they result in temperature uncertainties of between two and five degrees Celsius or more. We do not know how much worse are the stations in the developing world.

Using data from all these poor stations, the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates an average global 0.64ºC temperature rise in the past 50 years, "most" of which the IPCC says is due to humans. Yet the margin of error for the stations is at least three times larger than the estimated warming.

We know that cities show anomalous warming, caused by energy use and building materials; asphalt, for instance, absorbs more sunlight than do trees. Tokyo's temperature rose about 2ºC in the last 50 years. Could that rise, and increases in other urban areas, have been unreasonably included in the global estimates? That warming may be real, but it has nothing to do with the greenhouse effect and can't be addressed by carbon dioxide reduction.

Moreover, the three major temperature analysis groups (the U.S.'s NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.K.'s Met Office and Climatic Research Unit) analyze only a small fraction of the available data, primarily from stations that have long records. There's a logic to that practice, but it could lead to selection bias. For instance, older stations were often built outside of cities but today are surrounded by buildings. These groups today use data from about 2,000 stations, down from roughly 6,000 in 1970, raising even more questions about their selections.

On top of that, stations have moved, instruments have changed and local environments have evolved. Analysis groups try to compensate for all this by homogenizing the data, though there are plenty of arguments to be had over how best to homogenize long-running data taken from around the world in varying conditions. These adjustments often result in corrections of several tenths of one degree Celsius, significant fractions of the warming attributed to humans.

And that's just the surface-temperature record. What about the rest? The number of named hurricanes has been on the rise for years, but that's in part a result of better detection technologies (satellites and buoys) that find storms in remote regions. The number of hurricanes hitting the U.S., even more intense Category 4 and 5 storms, has been gradually decreasing since 1850. The number of detected tornadoes has been increasing, possibly because radar technology has improved, but the number that touch down and cause damage has been decreasing. Meanwhile, the short-term variability in U.S. surface temperatures has been decreasing since 1800, suggesting a more stable climate.

Without good answers to all these complaints, global-warming skepticism seems sensible. But now let me explain why you should not be a skeptic, at least not any longer.

Over the last two years, the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project has looked deeply at all the issues raised above. I chaired our group, which just submitted four detailed papers on our results to peer-reviewed journals. We have now posted these papers online at www.BerkeleyEarth.org to solicit even more scrutiny.

Our work covers only land temperature—not the oceans—but that's where warming appears to be the greatest. Robert Rohde, our chief scientist, obtained more than 1.6 billion measurements from more than 39,000 temperature stations around the world. Many of the records were short in duration, and to use them Mr. Rohde and a team of esteemed scientists and statisticians developed a new analytical approach that let us incorporate fragments of records. By using data from virtually all the available stations, we avoided data-selection bias. Rather than try to correct for the discontinuities in the records, we simply sliced the records where the data cut off, thereby creating two records from one.

We discovered that about one-third of the world's temperature stations have recorded cooling temperatures, and about two-thirds have recorded warming. The two-to-one ratio reflects global warming. The changes at the locations that showed warming were typically between 1-2ºC, much greater than the IPCC's average of 0.64ºC.

To study urban-heating bias in temperature records, we used satellite determinations that subdivided the world into urban and rural areas. We then conducted a temperature analysis based solely on "very rural" locations, distant from urban ones. The result showed a temperature increase similar to that found by other groups. Only 0.5% of the globe is urbanized, so it makes sense that even a 2ºC rise in urban regions would contribute negligibly to the global average.

What about poor station quality? Again, our statistical methods allowed us to analyze the U.S. temperature record separately for stations with good or acceptable rankings, and those with poor rankings (the U.S. is the only place in the world that ranks its temperature stations). Remarkably, the poorly ranked stations showed no greater temperature increases than the better ones. The mostly likely explanation is that while low-quality stations may give incorrect absolute temperatures, they still accurately track temperature changes.

When we began our study, we felt that skeptics had raised legitimate issues, and we didn't know what we'd find. Our results turned out to be close to those published by prior groups. We think that means that those groups had truly been very careful in their work, despite their inability to convince some skeptics of that. They managed to avoid bias in their data selection, homogenization and other corrections.

Global warming is real. Perhaps our results will help cool this portion of the climate debate. How much of the warming is due to humans and what will be the likely effects? We made no independent assessment of that.

Mr. Muller is a professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and the author of "Physics for Future Presidents" (W.W. Norton & Co., 2008).

17 Comments:

Anonymous Antidepressants said...

You wrote a very interesting article. And I agree with you.

7:51 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great website, looks very clean and organized. Keep up the good work! antibacterial Read a useful article about tramadol tramadol

9:23 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I read this article completely concerning the difference of latest
and preceding technologies, it's remarkable article.

Also visit my homepage: calories burned calculator

4:31 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

magnificent issues altogether, you just gained a logo new reader.
What might you suggest about your post that you simply made some
days in the past? Any sure?

My weblog: Chapter 13 Bankruptcy Florida

3:07 AM  
Blogger Coach Factory said...

chanel handbags, true religion, coach outlet store online, polo ralph lauren, oakley sunglasses, tory burch outlet, michael kors outlet, christian louboutin outlet, louis vuitton outlet, gucci handbags, burberry outlet online, cheap oakley sunglasses, louboutin shoes, kate spade handbags, prada outlet, nike air max, nike free, michael kors outlet store, kate spade outlet online, louis vuitton outlet online, longchamp outlet, burberry outlet online, michael kors outlet online, nike shoes, michael kors outlet online, ray ban sunglasses, oakley vault, louis vuitton outlet, louis vuitton, christian louboutin shoes, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet online, coach outlet, jordan shoes, prada handbags, louis vuitton handbags, red bottom shoes, longchamp outlet online, tiffany and co jewelry, coach outlet, nike air max, ray ban outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet, coach purses, longchamp handbags

10:59 PM  
Blogger Coach Factory said...

longchamp, nike roshe run, barbour, scarpe hogan, oakley pas cher, north face pas cher, ray ban uk, longchamp, nike air max, hollister, hermes pas cher, michael kors uk, guess pas cher, air max, burberry pas cher, ray ban pas cher, louis vuitton uk, tn pas cher, sac michael kors, nike blazer pas cher, nike air max, ralph lauren, converse pas cher, timberland, abercrombie and fitch, true religion outlet, michael kors canada, lululemon, sac louis vuitton, hollister, mulberry, louis vuitton pas cher, new balance pas cher, nike air force, vans pas cher, lacoste pas cher, longchamp pas cher, north face, sac vanessa bruno, nike huarache, nike free, chaussure louboutin, air jordan, air max pas cher, ralph lauren pas cher, nike trainers, nike roshe, nike free pas cher, louis vuitton, true religion outlet

11:00 PM  
Blogger Coach Factory said...

uggs outlet, giuseppe zanotti, mcm handbags, canada goose outlet, marc jacobs outlet, soccer jerseys, rolex watches, ugg soldes, mont blanc pens, ferragamo shoes, birkin bag, ugg outlet, babyliss pro, north face outlet, north face jackets, p90x workout, moncler, moncler outlet, herve leger, reebok outlet, canada goose, wedding dresses, moncler, abercrombie and fitch, lululemon outlet, celine handbags, valentino shoes, ghd, jimmy choo shoes, insanity workout, new balance outlet, roshe run, uggs on sale, asics shoes, moncler, beats headphones, canada goose outlet, nfl jerseys, canada goose outlet, instyler ionic styler, mac cosmetics, ugg, canada goose pas cher, vans outlet, bottega veneta, soccer shoes, chi flat iron, ugg boots, canada goose uk, hollister

11:01 PM  
Blogger Kill jim01 said...

louis vuitton outlet
michael kors
chi hair strighteners
michael kors outlet
polo ralph lauren
coach outlet store online
kate spade diaper bag
michael kors outlet
coach outlet stores online
tory burch handbags
coach factorty outlet
gucci
michael kors
louis vuitton outlet
ray ban outlet
jordan 4 retro
coach factory
abercrombie outlet
michael kors
timberland outlet
lebron 11
michael kors
abercrombie
tory burch outlet online
michael kors handbags
hollister outlet422qihang

11:26 PM  
Blogger Taibai Li said...

qihang0611tory burch outlet
coach outlet
burberry outlet
pandora jewelry
cheap jordans
burberry sale
kate spade outlet
michael kors outlet
kate spade
ray ban uk
christian louboutin sale
toms shoes
ray ban glasses
coach factory outlet
rolex watches
burberry handbags
kate spade uk
michael kors outlet online
fitflops sale clearance
soccer jerseys
air max 90
coach outlet
oakley sunglasses
coach outlet
burberry scarf
polo ralph lauren
oakley sunglasses
ralph lauren outlet
toms outlet
cheap oakley sunglasses
michael kors outlet online
true religion outlet
replica watches
q

9:18 PM  
Blogger John said...

louis vuitton
chanel handbags
louis vuitton outlet
oakley sunglasses
ray ban sunglass
coach outlet
gucci outlet
concords 11
gucci outlet
cheap jordans
nfl jerseys
kate spade outlet
abercrombie kids
dior outlet
michael kors outlet
coach factorty outlet
jordan 11
louboutins
polo outlet
true religion
coach outlet
coach outlet store online
ray ban sunglasses
retro 11
louis vuitton
oakley vault
coach outlet
louis vuitton outlet
2015630yuanyuan

3:31 AM  
Blogger Xiaozhengm 520 said...

2015-11-2 xiaozhengm
nike air jordan
nike outlet
running shoes
coach outlet
louis vuitton
polo outlet
coach outlet
louis vuitton
mcm outlet
tory burch outlet
snapbacks wholesale
ghd straighteners
longchamp outlet
adidas superstars
nike tn
nike air max uk
ray ban sunglasses
sac longchamp
michael kors
coach outlet
ugg boots
michael kors outlet
mulberry bags
jordan 6
fake oakley sunglasses
louis vuitton handbags
michael kors outlet online
fitflops clearance
true religion outlet
moncler outlet
ugg outlet
michael kors
ray ban sunglasses
coach factory outlet
michael kors
cheap ugg boots
hermes belt
canada goose uk
rolex replica watches
air jordans

8:17 PM  
Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

ninest123 11.14
louis vuitton outlet, longchamp outlet, nike free, cheap oakley sunglasses, longchamp outlet, michael kors outlet store, replica watches, ray ban sunglasses, louis vuitton outlet, prada handbags, jordan shoes, nike air max, uggs on sale, replica watches, michael kors outlet, nike outlet, oakley sunglasses, polo outlet, michael kors outlet, ugg boots, christian louboutin uk, christian louboutin shoes, tiffany jewelry, burberry handbags, tory burch outlet, longchamp outlet, louis vuitton, christian louboutin outlet, oakley sunglasses, prada outlet, burberry outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet online, uggs outlet, michael kors outlet online, louis vuitton outlet, ugg boots, michael kors outlet online, ray ban sunglasses, oakley sunglasses, uggs outlet, louis vuitton, nike air max, michael kors outlet online, gucci handbags, tiffany and co, christian louboutin, oakley sunglasses wholesale, ray ban sunglasses

2:27 AM  
Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

hogan outlet, nike air force, nike huaraches, timberland pas cher, vans pas cher, louboutin pas cher, coach outlet store online, nike air max, guess pas cher, michael kors, nike tn, north face, true religion outlet, nike air max uk, nike air max uk, new balance, michael kors pas cher, nike free uk, ray ban pas cher, converse pas cher, true religion jeans, nike blazer pas cher, longchamp pas cher, burberry pas cher, hollister uk, jordan pas cher, michael kors, true religion outlet, coach purses, coach outlet, polo lacoste, nike roshe run uk, sac vanessa bruno, ralph lauren uk, north face uk, lululemon canada, nike roshe, mulberry uk, air max, true religion outlet, nike free run, abercrombie and fitch uk, sac hermes, sac longchamp pas cher, nike trainers uk, polo ralph lauren, oakley pas cher, ray ban uk, michael kors outlet, hollister pas cher

2:29 AM  
Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

reebok outlet, chi flat iron, mcm handbags, hollister clothing, bottega veneta, lululemon, gucci, celine handbags, nike air max, insanity workout, nike air max, north face outlet, new balance shoes, asics running shoes, beats by dre, s6 case, jimmy choo outlet, iphone cases, wedding dresses, converse, ray ban, hermes belt, abercrombie and fitch, timberland boots, iphone 6 cases, valentino shoes, iphone 6s plus cases, vans outlet, iphone 6s cases, herve leger, iphone 5s cases, instyler, baseball bats, ghd hair, vans, oakley, nfl jerseys, ipad cases, soccer jerseys, p90x workout, ralph lauren, giuseppe zanotti outlet, babyliss, mac cosmetics, mont blanc pens, iphone 6 plus cases, soccer shoes, ferragamo shoes, hollister, louboutin, nike roshe run, north face outlet

2:33 AM  
Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

moncler, moncler, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, canada goose, supra shoes, moncler, canada goose, pandora jewelry, moncler outlet, marc jacobs, karen millen uk, moncler uk, canada goose outlet, canada goose jackets, moncler, doudoune moncler, thomas sabo, montre pas cher, pandora charms, swarovski crystal, converse outlet, louis vuitton, canada goose uk, michael kors outlet, juicy couture outlet, hollister, ugg pas cher, louis vuitton, barbour uk, louis vuitton, moncler outlet, toms shoes, canada goose outlet, michael kors handbags, coach outlet, pandora uk, juicy couture outlet, replica watches, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, canada goose outlet, swarovski, doke gabbana, louis vuitton, wedding dresses, canada goose, ugg, louis vuitton, barbour, links of london, ugg uk, lancel, pandora jewelry
ninest123 11.14

2:35 AM  
Blogger 艾丰 said...

jianbin1127
san antonio spurs
louis vuitton bags on sale
longchamp outlet online
cheap ray ban sunglasses
canada goose sale
calvin klein,calvin klein outlet online,calvin klein wholesale,calvin klein shoes,calvin klein underwear,calvin klein coats,calvin klein handbags
michael kors outlet sale
tory burch handbags
prada handbags
puma shoes
michael kors handbags wholesale
fitflop outlet
canada goose sale
michael kors online outlet
wedding dresses
michael kors handbags
uggs on sale
ugg clearance
tods shoes
bottega veneta outlet online
uggs outlet
links of london uk
replica watches
nike shoes
arizona cardinals
mont blanc
lululemon outlet store
miami dolphins
basketball shoes
cleveland cavaliers
michael kors handbags,michael kors outlet,michael kors,kors outlet,michael kors outlet online,michael kors outlet online sale,michael kors handbags clearance,michael kors purses,michaelkors.com,michael kors bags,michael kors shoes,michaelkors,cheap michael kors
michael kors outlet online

9:53 PM  
Blogger 柯云 said...

2015-12-25keyun
ray bans
jordan retro 11
tory burch outlet
michael kors outlet clearance
coach outlet
louis vuitton outlet
ray ban sunglasses
louis vuitton outlet
coach outlet
ugg australia
coach factory outlet
oakley sunglasses sale
coach outlet
uggs sale
coach outlet store online
oakley sunglasses
coach outlet store online clearance
timberlands
coach factory outlet online
louis vuitton outlet
michael kors outlet store
giuseppe zanotti outlet
louis vuitton
mont blanc mountain
louis vuitton outlet
ugg outlet store
ugg sale
fake oakley sunglasses
christian louboutin
hollister
adidas originals store
louis vuitton handbags
fitflop clearance
michael kors handbags
michael kors handbags
cheap oakley sunglasses
christian louboutin outlet
nike huarache white

1:14 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home